1 Million BEAD Locations Left. Will NTIA Fund Them All?

Researchers now put the number of BEAD-eligible locations still waiting for broadband at roughly 1 million. The problem: NTIA's tentative targets appear to cover only about half that. If those estimates hold, somewhere around 500,000 locations may not get funded in the next round. That's a pipeline question sitting on your desk today.

What the 1 Million Number Actually Means for Your Backlog

BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment) is the $42.5 billion federal program routing money through state agencies to fund last-mile broadband builds in unserved and underserved areas. Analysts Michael Santorelli and Alex Karras of ACLP published their analysis September 9, 2026. Their count puts eligible remaining locations at around 1 million nationwide.

NTIA, the Commerce Department's telecom arm running BEAD, appears to be targeting closer to 500,000 of those locations in its next round planning. That's a significant gap. It means the program may not go back for the other half, at least not right away.

One in three electric co-ops is already turning down BEAD money, according to NRECA. Fiber prices jumped 40 percent at one supplier in August alone. These aren't abstract headwinds. They're the conditions your ISP customers are operating in when they decide whether to bid on a build.

The Half That Might Not Get Funded Changes Your ISP Relationships

If your regional ISP customers are counting on BEAD dollars to fund their next build cycle, you need to know which locations they're bidding on and whether NTIA's targeting puts those locations in or out of the next round.

Here's the call you have to make: do you keep your crews on standby for a BEAD pipeline that may be smaller than your ISP partners expect, or do you diversify now?

That's not a hypothetical. I've seen this play out with aerial contractors who kept crews idle through a six-month ISP budget freeze waiting for BEAD approvals that moved slowly. Their DSO climbed past 70 days and their line of credit got tight before the work finally flowed. The ones who fared better had already picked up a mix of non-BEAD commercial work to fill the gap.

What You Should Be Asking Your ISP Contacts Right Now

Get specific. Ask your ISP customers:

• Which locations in your BEAD bid are confirmed in the next round's target footprint?
• What's your timeline to Notice to Proceed if NTIA approves your state plan?
• What's your contingency if locations get cut from the eligible list?

If they can't answer the first question, you're both flying without a map. That's when your crews sit and your AR ages.

The satellite location question adds another layer. Separate analysis earlier this year showed BEAD satellite-served locations could drop 35 to 42 percent as mapping data gets updated. Locations that are satellite-only today may flip to eligible for fiber build. That could add to the target pool, or it could shift where the build volume lands geographically.

The Practical Moves Right Now

You don't need NTIA to finalize its targeting before you act. A few things worth doing this week:

• Pull your ISP customers' pending BEAD bid locations and cross-check against your state's approved initial proposal.
• Map your crew capacity against a 50 percent scenario, not the full 1 million. What does your 12-month pipeline look like if build volume is half of what your ISP partners projected?
• If you're running thin on non-BEAD commercial work, your backlog is fragile. Fix that now, not when the freeze hits.

BEAD is still real money moving toward real builds. The question is how much of the remaining 1 million locations actually gets funded, and whether your ISP relationships are positioned on the right half of that list.

If you want more breakdowns like this one, The Splice goes out every week to telecom contractors running crews in the BEAD states. Subscribe below.

A smaller target pool doesn't kill the opportunity. It concentrates it. Make sure you're in the right conversations before the funding map gets drawn.